Decision-Making in Conditions of Uncertainty

Edgars Lapiņš

Information is the basic currency of the 21st century, but not all of it has equal value.

• How to differentiate a signal from noise in today’s over-abundance of information?
• How to differentiate what is important for correct decision-making from what seems compelling, but is really only muddying the waters?

There is more and more information every moment and the tempo is ever faster. Managers, particularly in the business environment, maintain that there is insufficient time to collect and check data, and decisions must often be made, based purely on a hunch.

Cognitive science researchers call this "decision-making in conditions of uncertainty". Many fascinating discoveries have been made in the past 20 years about the causes of this kind of thinking, as well as the mistakes which it triggers.

We invite you to learn practical methods which will help you to make more reliable decisions and be more successful in business and life!

During the course, we will teach you the skill of differentiating a signal from noise and to quickly define what sort of information we need for more effective decision-making, so that we don’t have to admit to poorly informed decisions, based on hunches!

Aim of the course: to arm participants with reliable knowledge and simple, effective decision-making methods.

Benefits: 

• Better quality everyday decision-making;
• A reduced feeling of uncertainty in conditions of uncertainty;
• An insight into world best practice/data-based decision-making in a business environment.

Duration: 2 x  3 hours.

Working method: 50/50 theory and practical exercises, including examples of best practice.

We will gain new knowledge during the course, as well as developing the newly acquired methods and skills through undertaking practical exercises.

Target audience: For decision-makers, middle or high-level managers in medium-sized and large organizations – executive directors, commercial directors, business or product development managers, personnel managers, marketing and sales managers and similar.

Programme: 

1. Situations where we make decisions which are not data-based. What is the reason behind this?
2. Typical mistakes that we make in everyday situations. Some concepts and thinking models for data-based decision-making.
3. Systemization of the decision-making process. How do we quickly solve problematic situations?
4. Practical “tricks” – methods for how to operate in situations of high uncertainty. How to quickly evaluate information, establish what is missing and find quick answers for the quintessential.
5. Data based decision-making methods in the world’s most successful organizations.
6. Effective extraction of the required data and decision-making methods.
7. Suggestions for better decision-making and faster extraction of information.
8. Summary. Practical suggestions for more effective everyday decision-making.

Venue: TRIVIUMS training centre, Blaumaņa 11/13 - 12, IV, Riga

Participation fees include handouts, coffee breaks and lunch.

For company training, the programme can be adapted for the specifics and needs of the company.